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The saffron is spilling!

S P Singh

Sometime in August 2004, an over-enthusiastic group calling itself Greene Dragon took out a cycle rally in New York, riding down Lexington Avenue warning New Yorkers “The Republicans are coming! The Republicans are coming!!” Nothing so theatrical is happening is Punjab, but be sure: "The saffron has spilled on us". 

The Akali Dal led by Parkash Singh Badal is headed to form yet another government, but the dominating color of this government will be saffron. The BJP, the Akali Dal’s alliance partner -- so candid is Parkash Singh Badal that he does not even term it a political alliance; he calls it a relationship between brothers -- has won 19 of the 23 seats and with Akalis holding only 48, the BJP will be lifeline of the government. 

Of course, trust Sukhbir Singh Badal’s newly honed management skills to get the five independents to join the Akali Dal, but that too will make little difference. 

Punjab had not had great memories of Akali Dal-saffron alliance. The public memory may be short but the fact remains that the Akali, Jan Sangh and CPI experiment in the first Gurnam Singh ministry, the Akali and Jan Sangh dalliance in the second Gurnam Singh ministry, the experiment in the post-emergency Parkash Singh Badal ministry and the apparently lovey-dovey ties during the 1997-2002 Badal regime are proof of the way Jan Sangh-BJP-RSS act in a coalition.  

With the historical luggage of Punjabi Hindus' role during the struggle for linguistic reorganisation of Punjab, the BJP-RSS efforts at propping up the surrogate Sikhs' Rashtriya Sikh Sangat, the RSS leaders' insistence on describing Sikhs as Hindus and the BJP's clearly anti-Punjab stance on the SYL-blocking bill passed by the Amarinder government, it can be safely concluded that the 'brotherly' alliance will not have a smooth ride with the saffron brother puffing its chest to 19/23 size and demanding its pound of flesh. It is true that the Badals' capacity of turning the Akali Dal into a secular organization is unfathomable, but then the Sikhs and the peasantry of Majha and Doaba can pretty well go the Malwa way. Who had thought Balwinder Singh Bhoondar will fall by the way side even six months earlier? 

The Akalis had 42 MLAs in the outgoing House. They have 48 in the new one. A slightly more accessible Amarinder Singh and a bit less inflation may have seen Amarinder Singh through. Parkash Singh Badal knows that, and his happiness is tinged by the signals sent by the peasantry. 

The election results have left many questions in their wake. Why did the Akali Dal suffer a humiliating show in Malwa? Why did the Jat peasantry drift away from it? Why did Sikhs' antipathy towards the Congress vanish so decisively just two decades after Operation Bluestar? If the anti-incumbency was a factor for Congress, then why did top Akali leaders lose? If price rise was a factor, then why the rural voters in Malwa, prone to maximum brunt on this front, vote for Congress? 

Also, if the MLAs' disregard of their own constituencies was a factor, then why did Adesh Pratap Kairon win despite remaining absent from his seat, and even the country, for most of the five years out of power? Manoranjan Kalia in Doaba hardly kept in touch with the voters after losing, but he still won impressively in Jalandhar central. So did Randip Singh in Nabha.  

A sage like political opinion emerging in Punjab is that perhaps the election results have lessons for everyone. For the Akalis about what happens when you leave out your traditional supporter, for the Congress about what coterie functioning and pride does to you and for the BJP about what all you can achieve provided you temper your agenda with some better political sense. The one who will learn more will lose less when it comes to the crunch next time. For the Sikh community, all three are on test. It hasn't ended, it has just begun. Even if we aren't cycling down the Amritsar-Delhi National Highway Number One shouting "The saffron is spilling! The saffron is spilling!!"■

February 28, 2007

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